These five teams haven't shown what it takes to make a run in the tournament, despite what you may think.
March is fast approaching, and fan bases all over the country are getting ready for their school to showcase what they've been doing on the national stage. And while all 363 Division 1 schools still have a chance to make The Big Dance (even the 3-23 LIU Sharks by way of conference championship), 359 will have played their last game by April. After closely analyzing every men's basketball program in the country, I have narrowed down the teams I believe can make it to the Final Four to 358. Here are the five that will NOT make it to the Final Four.
North Carolina
Hubert Davis has had a chaotic tenure as the head coach of the Tar Heels. They had fought to get to the eighth seed in the tournament a year ago. By way of Armando Bacot, RJ Davis, Caleb Love, and Brady Manek were able to stomp out their archnemesis Blue Devils in the Final Four and send Coach K into retirement. The win was closely followed by a gut-wrenching loss in the Championship to Kansas.
With an overwhelming percentage of their core players coming back and the addition of the 5th-year son of Larry Nance, Pete Nance, the program carried the momentum they were riding on during the last season into this one. They cruised to first place in the AP Preseason Polls, but ever since then, they haven't looked the same. The squad is now 0 and 8 in Quad 1 games, and only by reputation alone can they say they're sitting on the bubble.
Gonzaga
The Bulldogs are in their worst form since the 2015 season. They've been blown out by Texas and Purdue and been lackluster in league play, losing to Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary's.
Led by Drew Timme, Gonzaga can score at will but has been second-class on the defensive end of the court. They've posted a 101.4 defensive rating, ranking them 196th in the country. For comparison, they were 5th last year with a rating of 89.7. Along with the fact that Gonzaga always seems to fall short in March, this is why they will miss the final weekend.
Indiana
Trayce Jackson-Davis would probably win Naismith Player of the Year if Zach Edey never decided to pick up a basketball. His loyalty to the University and Mike Woodson has been unparalleled since the transfer portal's adoption. He's everything I've come to love about College ball.
I also want to add that Jalen Hood-Schifino has done an excellent job coming in as a freshman and taking on the role of being a secondary scorer behind his other hyphenated teammate.
However, that's where the love for the Hoosiers ends. Since Xavier Johnson had his foot injury, Indiana's been hard-pressed to find a third option, and they've relied on the two aforementioned superstars to do all the heavy lifting. In their last game against Michigan, Jackson-Davis and Hood-Schifino combined for 49 points in a 62-61 victory. They also combined for 73 of 80 possible minutes played by the two to carry the rest of the team over the finish line. Come March, though, it'd be hard to win if either one has a bad game.
Purdue
Matt Painter's Boilermakers have lost three of their last four, and now the question has to be asked. Has Purdue been figured out? Zach Edey has continued to dominate, but the big man can't do it all.
Their recent loss against Maryland included Edey contributing 18 to their grand sum of 54. It's possible that come tournament time, coaches will disregard Edey and focus their game plan on stopping Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. As good as they are when everyone is working together, it becomes easier to knock off a giant like Purdue when you zero in on their second and third options.
Duke
The one-and-done experiment has turned out to be a failure. While Duke constantly produces NBA-level players, their reliance on freshmen to bring home a title has led to no avail in recent years. They consistently get bounced by teams led by upperclassmen, and this year will be no different.
The Blue Devils have been late to the party regarding transfers and fifth years, and the inability to get with the times has set them back. Being able to recruit players in college who you know have what it takes to come into a system and achieve and not have to gamble on whether or not high school seniors can make the jump has been a luxury that Krzyzewski and Scheyer have been hesitant to use.
With the exception of Kyle Filipowski ,the four starting freshmen have been mediocre for most of the season. Even though each has shown flashes that display their talent, they have yet to put the team on their back and show us any reason why they could get to Houston this year.
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